Wednesday, March 25, 2009

When the Going Gets Weird, the Weird Turn Hayek

Lately it seems there’s been a lot of talking and writing about the failure of American Capitalism and the wrongs of market based economies. On Monday alone, while perusing my favorites on My Yahoo, I came across “Now Is No Time to Give Up on Markets” (Wall Street Journal) and “American Capitalism Besieged” (Washington Post). It makes sense for business and financial writers to spend more time on the subject of critiquing capitalism these days as current events have shaken foundational beliefs in markets and the pursuit of profit through private interests. I’ll get right to the point; my faith and confidence in the capitalist democratic model of our society is as strong as it’s ever been. In fact, the model is working like it’s supposed to and as described by many of the economists who for the past 100+ years have been thinking and writing about how messy and unpredictable yet efficient and successful this model can be.

One of those economists was Frederick Hayek. Hayek, who died in 1992, spent most of his life playing Lex Luthor to John Maynard Keynes’ Superman. He also produced some of the clearest thinking as to why capitalism and markets provide the best chance for the most people to grow beyond a subsistence level of living. He did this at a time when Keynesian economics ruled and only freaks like Ayn Rand and the guy who slept in my town’s cemetery and wore only purple were champions of free markets and small government. Hayek’s work is difficult to read even when you discount for the boredom factor required for all Economics texts. One must be patient to read a deeply philosophical economics tome written by a somewhat curmudgeonly Austrian, and if one persists one comes across some of the most insightful bits of economic thinking ever put down on paper.

Getting back to the subject at hand, in “The Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism” Hayek reminds us that Capitalism is far from perfect but beats the pants off of any competing economic model, like say Socialism. So attempting to leverage the brilliance of Hayek I’d like to defend Capitalism and markets by beating the snot out of Socialism. In addition, to paraphrase Eddie Murphy, I like to make fun of Socialists because they’re Socialist.

In The Fatal Conceit Hayek writes “The market is the only known method of providing information enabling individuals to judge comparative advantages of different uses of resources of which they have immediate knowledge and through whose use, whether they so intend or not, they serve the needs of distant unknown individuals. This dispersed knowledge is essentially dispersed, and cannot possibly be gathered together and conveyed to an authority charged with the task of deliberately creating order.”

Allow me to expand on Hayek’s premise by invoking one of the foremost examples of Socialism America has ever produced: Gilligan’s Island. If you think Cuba is the only place that could successfully combine palm trees, pristine beaches, and the triumph of the proletariat I beg you to flip on Nick at Nite and behold a Marxist paradise.

In all seriousness (yeah right, but work with me here) the seven castaways serve as perfect examples of why Socialism cannot scale beyond a handful of people. Each castaway uses his/her talents to produce something that is shared among the group. The Skipper and Gilligan provide manual labor like in the episode where the Skipper shoves a bit in Gilligan’s mouth so his ‘little buddy’ can serve as a 98 pound oxen and plow a field. The Professor provides the intellectual firepower to develop technologies like coconut phones and an amazing array of transistor radio based applications that can do everything but send a radio signal. Mary Ann cooks and cleans in a perky half-shirt and short-shorts combo (yummy). The Howells did nothing, representing the 15 – 20% of every society who feel entitled to leach off the work of others. And Ginger did everybody.

Now let’s introduce a crushing blow to this Socialist island Eden. Assume (that’s economist talk for ‘let’s pretend’) another island within traveling distance of Massachusetts, I mean Gilligan’s Island. Assume this nearby island is populated by a small group of people, some of whom have the same skills as the seven castaways and some of whom have developed a differentiated set of skills (like ways to produce two-way radios, outboard motors, and cannibal repellent). What would happen if competition was introduced? What would happen to the productive capacity and usefulness of our castaways? If you were the Generalissimo of the Republica d’Gilligan what would you do?

Hayek wrote that “Competition is a procedure of discovery, a procedure involved in all evolution, that led man unwittingly to respond to novel situations; and through further competition, not through agreement, we gradually increase our efficiency.” If the kids on the other island could plow fields, cook, or make better coconut phones than you, you could chase them away (lower your standard of living through losing out on further specialization and more efficient resource allocation), or try to manage all interactions with them so everybody felt things were fair and everybody felt equally treated (Socialist central control of an economy to meet political needs), or you could throw down a few laws and regulations and allow a market to evolve through voluntary transactions and private control of the means of production (market based Capitalism supported by property rights and rule of law). If you opted for path number three things could get complicated and change would be constant. For instance Ginger might have to go to work for Mary Ann or vice-versa (double yummy!). But you would unleash a powerful force among the two islands. A force that would be difficult to manage and would often cause people to be felt unfairly treated. You would have to develop the faith and cajones to ride out these tides of ill feelings and tension. You would have to learn to appropriately tax and regulate the fishing, coconut oil (stop thinking about Mary Ann), and bamboo car industries based on the economic environment not people’s feelings.

Hayek too saw governance of market based societies as difficult and potentially self destructive; “Governments strong enough to protect individuals against violence of their fellows make possible the evolution of an increasingly complex order of spontaneous and voluntary cooperation. Sooner or later, however, they tend to abuse that power and to suppress the freedom they had earlier secured in order to enforce their own presumedly greater wisdom and not to allow social institutions to develop in a haphazard manner.”

Hayek did not live on Gilligan’s Island at least the back panels of most of his books don’t mention it. But he did live through a period of massive change and disruption (WW I, the economic collapse of Europe in the 20’s and 30’s, Facism, WW II, and the Cold War). When many blamed the uncertainty and unfairness of Capitalism for society’s ills, Hayek shot back that it was the lack of freedom provided to make Capitalism work that led to half-baked policies and tore societies apart. For a society to truly succeed it had to be strong enough through its rules and its guarantee of individual freedom to withstand the weird and uncomfortable byproducts of an evolutionary process, not try to control the uncontrollable. “Civilisation is not only a product of evolution – it is a process; by establishing a framework of general rules and individual freedom it allows itself to continue to evolve. This evolution cannot be guided by and often will not produce what men demand. “ he wrote. And that “…by repressing differentiation due to luck, it would have scotched most discoveries of new possibilities.”

So what’s my point? We live in a time of uncertainty but one not nearly as frightening as when Hayek was developing his ideas and warning us not to think so short term as to lead ourselves down the Road to Serfdom. Next time someone tells you what a great idea it is for a government to wrest control of a business or industry from the greedy hands of cowboy capitalists please think of what a weird idea that actually is.

8 comments:

  1. Great article, Mike. I am just going to throw one counterpoint your way using your own analogy. Believe me, I don't think Socialism is the answer, but unchecked Cowboy Capitalism can be just as scary. There needs to be some checks and balances here.
    For example, in the episode where a Beatles like singing group (The Mosquitoes) come to Gilligan's Island via helicoptor with resources beyond those of the castaways (think Big Evil Corporation) they gladly accept the hospitality and the use of the meager resources of the castaways (think exploitation). However, when MaryAnne, Ginger, and Mrs. Howell put together their own singing group(The Honeybees - think small businesss just starting out) that directly competes with the Mosquitoes they react differently. Especially when they realize that not only do the HoneyBees directly compete with them, they actually produce a better product by singing better than they do. Instead of using this competition as an excuse to make their own product better, which is what we would want in an ideal capitalist system, what they do is they use their superior resources to squash them flat by abandoning them to their fate on the island.
    My question is, who looks out for the HoneyBees of the world? I know that this is extremely simplistic but in this little thought experiment, unchecked capitalism did not help the world, in fact it impeded progress.
    I too, am a firm believer that our Capitalist system is the best system out there, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying to improve it or look for ways to do things better. Nor does it mean we should take what we are told by the people with all the resources (AIG, etc) at face value. That attitude directly contributed to the situation we find ourselves in now because people stopped looking closely and asking the hard questions.

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  2. Spike,
    Great retort! Your example of the Mosquitoes supports my point as well. When faced with competition in a free market the Mosquitoes failed to provide the value produced by the Honeybees. The Mosquitoes retreated from the market instead of investing to match the value of the Honeybees.

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  3. Yes, they removed themselves from the market but they were rewarded for that behavior. Not only that, put they punished someone else who was trying to participate in the market fairly by physically removing them from the market against their will.

    So I guess the real question is, how do we manage a free-market system in a way that minimizes the chances of the Haves interfering with the Hungry's ability to participate so that society can profit from the progress and innovation that is the natural byproduct of a true, competitive, free-market system.

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  4. The point is that any attempt to manage a free market system by central control of capital or resources will cause infinitely more pain than the problems associated with the bad behaviors present in a more open system. That's why societies with strong traditions of rule of law and, like it or not, a single definable culture are so successful with capitalism. The law of unintended consequences can get you in the neck.

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  5. So, what you are saying is that it is OK that the Mosquitoes screwed over the Honeybees even though it left poor MaryAnne in tears because that kind of behavior is just something we have to live with in order for the free market system to work properly? Sorry, still not buying it. There has to be a balance somewhere. I'm not saying that the government should be hiring and firing CEO's anymore but how about just some checks to make sure those CEO's don't crap all over the little guy. After the utter contempt that was shown to the American people by the majority of those corporate turdburglars responsible for our current mess I think maybe a little oversight over them probably wouldn't have been a bad thing, don't you think? Maybe oversight is the wrong word, how about transparency? In fact, I am a bit confused, because you mentioned something about that in your AIG post. Or did you mean that oversight or transparency should come from within as part of the corporate culture? If so, it is a fine idea and something to strive for but I think, as we have seen, that it isn't even close to the culture that exists today. I'm not trying to argue just for arguing sake (well, part of me is) I truly am trying to grasp what you are trying to get at and I know I am not a business guy so please keep trying to explain.

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  6. The level of complexity inherent in even a local economy is far beyond the capacity for mere humans to manage and anyone who thinks he can is full of shit or insane. Our society has developed institutions to deal with people getting screwed: Property rights and rule of law. When those two things are frigged with its all over. AIG were a bunch of dopes playing with toys they did not understand. That's not an excuse for their behavior, that is a sad fact. If there was criminal activity at AIG those guilty should be hung by their toenails. Hayek believed that there was tension between liberty and equality (read your Madison, Jefferson, and Paine). To balance the two is very difficult and when push comes to shove we should choose liberty as the only proven approach to equality is slavery.

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  7. OK. I am with you. I agree that expecting to manage an inherently chaotic and complex system with any kind of efficacy is a recipe for disaster. But remaining static (i.e. not adjusting rule of law) doesn't seem very smart to me either. The recent economic turmoil did not just affect a few people,the outliers in the system, it affected whole nations on a global scale and while I am all for punishing the criminal behavior of some of these nimrods that contributed to this, that isn't good enough. It's kind of like shutting the barn doors after the horses have run free. What I want to know is how do we prevent something like this from happening again without some kind of change? I am not suggesting that the government should step in and make sweeping changes and overreact in response to this disaster. That generally isn't a good thing. It certainly didn't help this country when the government overreacted after the 9/11 disaster. They practically threw the liberties that you and I enjoy and agree need protecting right out the window in their efforts to find the terrorists under the bed. So I agree with you that over reaching government interference is and would be a bad thing for our free market system. So what is the answer? What would you do to help make sure that something like this does not happen again. There were many many corporate people who were being completely irresponsible with other peoples money and it led to a worldwide economic recession. What would you do to prevent that from happening again? And in my opinion, doing nothing is not an acceptable answer. It doesn't have to be much, maybe just a nudge in the right direction, but something. By the way, Thomas Paine is one of my heroes. One of my favorite quotes of his is: "Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one." So, knowing that government is a NECESSARY evil, what can it do to help prevent future mis-handlings of our economy (throw me a bone here, there must be something the govt could do that you would be ok with)?

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  8. I like the Salma Hayek principle, where you stare at large breasts and try to forget that your 401K isn't worth Ditka anymore. It doesn't really work financially, but you can't diddle yourself to the WSJ, either. It is good to have balance in all things.

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